The key to success in Punting is totally related to the player’s ability to find value bets. Many bettors are well aware of the concept of “Expected Value”, which is behind value bets, but they have difficulties putting it into practice and, therefore, end up not achieving satisfactory results in the long term.
It is common for Punter to believe that the same strategies he applies in the pre-match market can be applied in the live market. However, there is a big difference between the two moments.
In a pre-match analysis, you try to gather as much information as possible from the event and, therefore, translate that amount of information into numbers or situations capable of making one side of an event a favorite.
In the live market, all this information may not mean much, because despite following the same line of thinking as the pre-match, the live market allows us to assess the progress of the match. In many cases, players or teams play more than expected, which makes it impossible to use the same pre-game market reading.
One of the great dangers of the live market is the amount of markets available. When a game has a big favorite, the tendency is to show not-so-good odds and still attract many beginners believing it to be a “safe bet”.